Research

Potential Vorticity Diagnosis of Hurricane Track Forecasts

Overview

I spent a summer as a CIMES intern at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Princeton. My project aimed to understand the biases of the tropical cyclone (TC) track in the GFSv14, ECMWF IFS and GFDL SHiELD models for the 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season. I was advised by Dr. Jan-Huey Chen. We looked at a case on Hurricane Maria (2017) where a 5-day TC track forecast indicated a northward TC track bias in the GFS and a slowdown of Maria's translation speed in the IFS. We wanted to understand what factors caused each model's bias in TC track.

To answer these questions, we utilized a piecewise potential vorticity (PV) diagnosis. The idea is that large-scale synoptic systems heavily influence the movement of TC tracks. This technique allows us to isolate each system's wind contribution on Maria (i.e., the system's steering flow). Consequently, we can quantify the steering contribution of each synoptic system on Maria (and other TC's) allowing us to understand what exactly causes the biases in these models.

5-day TC track forecast of Hurricane Maria (2017)

Controls on the Diurnal Cycle of Dust in the Salton Basin

Overview

During my undergraduate studies, I worked under Professor Amato Evan. We were interested in studying dust in the Salton Basin. This basin is particularily interesting because residents here are often affected by dust storms forced by downslope windstorms as a result of prevailing westerly flow over the Laguna Mountains to the west. Furthermore, one of California's largest lakes, the Salton Sea, lies at the center and lowest point of the basin. It is characteristically shallow (a max depth of about 15m), saline (50% saltier than seawater) and is rapidly shrinking. This shrinking leads to a disproportionate amount of surface area of dry lakebed (playa) exposed to the atmosphere, possibly contributing fuel for more intense dust storms. As the region becomes more arid and more playa is exposed to the atmosphere, some questions of interest arise: How will dust storms change in terms of frequency and intensity? What are the core dynamics behind these storms and what atmospheric conditions allow for them to occur? Will these changes mean worse effects for residents living in the region?


Dust event captured in the Basin on February 22, 2020

Research platform located southwest of the Salton Sea
Me launching a weather balloon a day before a forecasted dust storm to analyze dust storm preconditions

Retrieving Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) utilizing GPS

SALT Site ASCII File